Flattening the Curve after the Initial Outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Data-Driven Modeling Analysis for the Omicron Pandemic in China.

China is relaxing COVID-19 measures from the "dynamic zero tolerance" (DZT) level. The "flatten-the-curve" (FTC) strategy, which decreases and maintains the low rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system by adopting relaxed nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) after the outbreak, has been perceived as the most appropriate and effective method in preventing the spread of the Omicron variant. Hence, we established an improved data-driven model of Omicron transmission based on the age-structured stochastic compartmental susceptible-latent-infectious-removed-susceptible model constructed by Cai to deduce the overall prevention effect throughout China. At the current level of immunity without the application of any NPIs, more than 1.27 billion (including asymptomatic individuals) were infected within 90 days. Moreover, the Omicron outbreak would result in 1.49 million deaths within 180 days. The application of FTC could decrease the number of deaths by 36.91% within 360 days. The strict implementation of FTC policy combined with completed vaccination and drug use, which only resulted in 0.19 million deaths in an age-stratified model, will help end the pandemic within about 240 days. The pandemic would be successfully controlled within a shorter period of time without a high fatality rate; therefore, the FTC policy could be strictly implemented through enhancement of immunity and drug use.

The Benefits and Costs of Using Social Distancing to Flatten the Curve for COVID-19

We examine the net benefits of social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19 in USA. Social distancing saves lives but imposes large costs on society due to reduced economic activity. We use epidemiological and economic forecasting to perform a rapid benefit–cost analysis of controlling the COVID-19 outbreak. Assuming that social distancing measures can substantially reduce contacts among individuals, we find net benefits of about $5.2 trillion in our benchmark case. We examine the magnitude of the critical parameters that might imply negative net benefits, including the value of statistical life and the discount rate. A key unknown factor is the speed of economic recovery with and without social distancing measures in place. A series of robustness checks also highlight the key role of the value of mortality risk reductions and discounting in the analysis and point to a need for effective economic stimulus when the outbreak has passed.

Nutrition-sensitive lockdowns: conceptual framework and empirical insights from Africa during COVID-19.

Motivation: Countries facing challenges of nutrition security confront a trade-off when dealing with pandemics such as COVID-19. Implementing lockdown measures, widely used worldwide, can help "flatten the curve" (of disease), but such measures may worsen nutrition security. Purpose: We aim to identify and justify nutrition-sensitive lockdown measures to reduce trade-offs with nutrition security. Methods and approach: We propose a conceptual framework which distinguishes eight lockdown measures and six pathways to nutrition security. To demonstrate the relevance of the pathways, we reviewed emerging literature on COVID-19 and nutrition security. We analysed the content of 1,188 newspaper articles on lockdown effects in five African countries - Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Uganda and Zambia. Findings: Some lockdown measures, such as closing workplaces and restricting movement, potentially worsen nutrition far more than others - banning events and public gatherings have far lesser impacts on nutrition. This can be seen from the framework, literature, and is supported by the analysis of newspaper reports in the five countries. Policy implications: It is better when possible to test and trace disease than to lockdown. But when lockdowns are needed, then first recourse should be to measures that have few nutritional consequences, such as banning public events. When more drastic measures are necessary, look to mitigate nutritional harm by, for example, exempting farm labour from restrictions on movement, by replacing school meals with take-home rations, and, above all, providing income support to households most affected and most vulnerable.

Going viral: A science communication collaboration in the era of COVID-19 and social media

On 9 March 2020, 2 days before the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic, two of the authors (microbiologist and infectious diseases expert Associate Professor Siouxsie Wiles and cartoonist Toby Morris) released their first output together: an animated GIF (Graphics Interchange Format) known as "Flatten the Curve”. The graphic went viral on Twitter with over 10 million impressions in 3 days. Flatten the Curve was the first of more than 70 graphics produced by our collaboration, all designed as accessible visual communication about COVID-19. The graphics, all released under a Creative Commons CC-BY-SA-4.0 license, have been translated into multiple languages, used by communities, politicians, and public health officials around the world, and the collaborators have won multiple awards for their work. Copyright © 2023 Wiles, Morris and Priestley.

SHAPING THE PHENOMENA

The current expression of “flatten the curve” has similarities with mid-twentieth century macro-economic policy that can aptly be characterized as “shaping macro phenomena.” To the extent these similarities hold, the historical-epistemological analysis of this kind of macro-economic policy can provides us with a better understanding of the preconditions for the effectiveness of the current COVID-19 flatten-the-curve policy. Policy in terms of shaping a phenomenon presumes that the phenomenon in question exists and has a certain shape that can be moulded. This moulding, however, is not assumed to be performed directly on the shape itself, but by operating the mechanism that generates this shape, and which is also believed to exist. Therefore the precondition for this kind of policy is knowing the mechanism at work. The knowledge of this kind of intervention needed to change the shape in a desired direction, this knowledge about the mechanism, is assumed to be captured by a mathematical model on which several policies can be tried out to see which one leads to the desired shape. Mid-twentieth century macro-economic policy aimed at shaping the business cycle, and hence was based on the belief in the existence of a business cycle mechanism. With the loss of the belief in the existence of such a mechanism, the policy of shaping the business cycle disappeared with that too. This paper unpacks this history and shows how this policy based on mechanical reasoning, which originated in natural science, was gradually replaced by an approach that takes into account non-natural aspects of human behaviour. © 2022 by the authors.

Simulation model for Covid-19 pandemic

This paper outlines computer modeling algorithms designed to predict and forecast a COVID-19. In this paper, we consider a deterministic model. Theongoing COVID-19 epidemic quickly spread across the globe. Significant behavioural, social initiatives to limit city transport, case identification and touch tracking, quarantine, advice, and knowledge to the public, creation of detection kits, etc. and state measures were conducted to reduce the epidemic and eliminate coronavirus persistence in humans around the world from stopping the global coronavirus outbreak. In this paper, we propose a basic SIR epidemic model to show a simulation, the MATLAB algorithm using bouncing dots to depict safe and sick people to simulate infection spread. The graphical model shown here is implemented using MATLAB package version 3.0. In this paper, we discuss the importance of models because they help one explore what could happen. They demonstrate how different possible futures might be shaped by what we are doing now. We can examine the effects of specific interventions in different ways such as quarantine or a lockdown & explore how simulations may predict, how infectious diseases advanced to show the possible result of an outbreak, and better guide initiatives in public health regarding the pandemic response and pandemic past including an overview of the key characteristics of adverse pandemic consequences and epidemic outbreak.

Can scientists use simple infographics to convince? Effects of the "flatten the curve" charts on perceptions of and behavioral intentions toward social distancing measures during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Infographics of modest complexity are commonly used to convey knowledge to non-experts. However, little is known regarding how the use of infographics may convince the public and lead to massive behavioral changes in response to an acute cause. In March 2020, scientists and journalists revamped a scholarly published graph into the "flatten the curve" (FTC) mantra that defined the United States' initial response to the COVID-19 pandemic. This study examined how Americans' awareness of the flatten the curve charts relates to their perceived effectiveness of social distancing measures, perceived controllability of the pandemic, and behavioral intentions toward social distancing measures. Implications on visual communication of science are discussed.

Non-pharmaceutical strategies win coronavirus disease 2019 battle in New Zealand.

This literature-based article found that on 08 June 2020, New Zealand claimed victory over coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mainly because of effective non-pharmaceutical strategies and interventions that included a hard lockdown. The response was informed by the country's Influenza Pandemic Plan (although without criticism), which was updated in 2017, and the swift responses from political leadership and other key stakeholders. Strategies instituted included the proclamation of urgent precautionary measures leading to border closures, issuing of a 3-month-long COVID-19 notice under the Epidemic Preparedness Act 2006, the proclamation of the COVID-19 Elimination Strategy and the Initial COVID-19 Maori Response Action Plan, which incorporated COVID-19 Alert Levels that facilitated stepwise easing of the hard lockdown. The non-pharmaceutical strategies seem to have worked again, even as the second wave of COVID-19 infections returned in August 2020 through an Auckland cluster. Hence, the New Zealand case remains one that the world can draw lessons from, although not perfect.

The find of COVID-19 vaccine: Challenges and opportunities.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), a novel corona virus, causing COVID-19 with Flu-like symptoms is the first alarming pandemic of the third millennium. SARS-CoV-2 belongs to beta coronavirus as Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV). Pandemic COVID-19 owes devastating mortality and destructively exceptional consequences on Socio-Economics life around the world. Therefore, the current review is redirected to the scientific community to owe comprehensive visualization about SARS-CoV-2 to tackle the current pandemic. As systematically shown through the current review, it indexes unmet medical problem of COVID-19 in view of public health and vaccination discovery for the infectious SARS-CoV-2; it is currently under-investigational therapeutic protocols, and next possible vaccines. Furthermore, the review extensively reports the precautionary measures to achieve" COVID-19/Flatten the curve". It is concluded that vaccines formulation within exceptional no time in this pandemic is highly recommended, via following the same protocols of previous pandemics; MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV, and excluding some initial steps of vaccination development process.

Preparing for COVID-19 exit strategies.

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected 20 million people worldwide with over 732,000 deaths and trillions of dollars of lost economic productivity. It has put many countries into lockdown to contain the virus and save lives. As COVID-19 cases in some countries start to plateau and societies work hard to 'flatten the curve', leaders are being asked to formulate plans for safe and staged 'exit strategies' to reopen society. Each country will decide on their own exit strategy but many plans are considering similar vital healthcare principles including the maintenance of social distancing to prevent ongoing community transmission, testing capacity, protection of the healthcare systems and the health of their care workers. This review aims to provide an overview of essential factors that plans for exit strategy should consider and their effect on the societies' social and healthcare life.

How did "flatten the curve" become "flatten the economy?" A perspective from the United States of America.

The coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic offers many medical, economic, societal, and cultural challenges. The response by individual states in the United States of America varies, but with the common initial impetus for all being to "flatten the curve," which was intended to delay infections and spread the burden and impact on hospitals and medical systems. Starting with that intention, the responses by states has included many major steps not taken in prior pandemics. Those steps have significantly adversely affected hospitals rather than support them, and the overall impact has been to "flatten the economy" rather than just to "flatten the curve." Many state governors have stated that their decisions are "science-led" and "data driven" but the reality is that there is not relevant experimental data. The progression of decisions during the early pandemic decisions is traced, and the basis of decisions based in science or herd mentality is discussed. Experiences are not experiments, and experiences are not founded in the scientific process. Medical and government leaders must be vigilant to recognize the limitations of available data in responding to unique circumstances.